NFL Spread Picks For Week 1: Back The Saints In A Road Dome Game

Kickoff is around the corner, and there's no time to waste. Let's get into a trio of our staff's favorite NFL spread picks for Week 1, derived from their individual game-by-game betting write-ups (which you can expect every weekend leading up to kickoff on Sundays).

Week 1 NFL Spread Picks

Browns +8.5 (-115, FanDuel) @ Jaguars

Justin Carlucci: I think the Jaguars will win the game. But 8.5 points is too many for me to lay in a matchup with a total of only 40.5.

Cleveland’s biggest issue is obvious: Can Deshaun Watson avoid a catastrophic performance? First-year head coach Todd Monken named Watson the starter and a team captain for Week 1, so the Browns are clearly making a bet on their veteran quarterback—even if nobody else knows why.

That bet might not work. But Watson does not need to be great for Cleveland to cover. He just needs to provide remotely average quarterback play, protect the football, and allow the Browns’ defense to keep the game within reach.

The Browns were one of the NFL’s best defenses last season, ranking fourth in EPA per play allowed. Jacksonville was not far behind, finishing third. The Jaguars were the superior offense, ranking 12th in offensive EPA per play, while Cleveland struggled to consistently move the ball.

Still, the Browns have enough defensive talent to make things uncomfortable. Myles Garrett is gone, but Cleveland did not leave the cupboard bare. Jared Verse, Carson Schwesinger, Denzel Ward, and Grant Delpit are legitimate football players. The Jaguars also have a relatively unproven backfield with Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez, and LeQuint Allen all expected to factor in.

This is a low-total game with two strong defenses. If it remains competitive into the fourth quarter, you will be thrilled to be holding +8.5. The main risk is a Watson meltdown that gives Jacksonville short fields and turns this into a blowout. But at this number, I am willing to bet that Cleveland hangs around.

Steelers -3.5 (-104, FanDuel) vs. Falcons

Matt LaMarca: Bettors have a special relationship with Mike Tomlin. He was undoubtedly one of the best in the business at covering the spread, posting a 163-140-6 mark as the team’s head coach. That makes him the seventh-most-profitable head coach since 2005.

But you know who is the second-most-profitable head coach over that time frame? That would be McCarthy. He owns a 157-125-6 ATS record since 2005, so he’s one of the few guys who can match Tomlin in that respect.

The way the two coaches have historically covered has been wildly different. Tomlin has historically excelled as an underdog, while McCarthy has crushed as a home favorite. McCarthy is 67-44-2 ATS in that split, so this is a spot where he has typically been at his best.

Of course, most of McCarthy’s wins as a head coach came with a prime Rodgers under center, so it’s fair to wonder if it’s still relevant. Perhaps the Steelers will disappoint overall this season, but I like them to start the year strong. If the Falcons can’t pressure the quarterback without Pearce, Rodgers should be able to keep the chains moving. Our NFL Game Model has the projected spread at -4.3, making this one of the biggest edges of the week.

Saints +6.5 (+100, FanDuel) @ Lions

Justin Carlucci: Detroit is at home, has the better-established quarterback, and is loaded with players who can flip a game with one touch. But I love getting New Orleans at +6.5 for even money.

This is a lot of points for a team that still has some intriguing offensive pieces. Tyler Shough had a full offseason in Moore’s offense, and while there will be growing pains, the Saints should be willing to push the tempo and create opportunities through the passing game.

The Lions are talented, but I am not entirely sold on their defense.

The total also supports that idea. A 49.5-point number is not a sign that bookmakers expect Detroit to run away and hide in a 27-10 game. New Orleans should be able to contribute enough offense to keep pace.

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Published Sep 11, 2026, 7:00 PM ETUpdated Sep 11, 2026, 9:10 PM ET